Measuring the Impact of Sea‐Level Rise on Coastal Real Estate: A Hedonic Property Model Approach

17 Pages Posted: 28 Sep 2011

See all articles by Okmyung Bin

Okmyung Bin

East Carolina University - Department of Economics

Ben Poulter

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Christopher F. Dumas

University of North Carolina at Wilmington - Cameron School of Business - Department of Economics and Finance

John C. Whitehead

Appalachian State University - Department of Economics

Date Written: October 2011

Abstract

This study estimates the impact of sea‐level rise on coastal real estate in North Carolina using a unique integration of geospatial and hedonic property data. With rates of sea‐level rise approximately double the global average, North Carolina has one of the most vulnerable coastlines in the United States. A range of modest sea‐level rise scenarios based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report projections (2007) are considered for four counties of North Carolina - New Hanover, Dare, Carteret, and Bertie - which represent a cross‐section of the state's coastline in geographical distribution and economic development. High‐resolution topographic LIDAR (light detection and ranging) data are used to provide accurate inundation maps for the properties that will be at risk under six different sea‐level rise scenarios. A simulation approach based on spatial hedonic models is used to provide consistent estimates of the property value losses. Considering just four coastal counties in North Carolina, the value of residential property loss without discounting in 2030 (2080) is estimated to be about $179 ($526) million for the mid‐range sea‐level rise scenarios. Low‐lying and heavily developed areas in the northern coastline are comparatively more vulnerable to the effect of sea‐level rise than the other areas.

Suggested Citation

Bin, Okmyung and Poulter, Ben and Dumas, Christopher F. and Whitehead, John C., Measuring the Impact of Sea‐Level Rise on Coastal Real Estate: A Hedonic Property Model Approach (October 2011). Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 51, Issue 4, pp. 751-767, 2011, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1934631 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2010.00706.x

Okmyung Bin (Contact Author)

East Carolina University - Department of Economics ( email )

Brewster Building
Greenville, NC 27858
United States

Ben Poulter

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Christopher F. Dumas

University of North Carolina at Wilmington - Cameron School of Business - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Wilmington, NC 28403
United States

John C. Whitehead

Appalachian State University - Department of Economics ( email )

Boone, NC 28608
United States

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