Conditions Under Which Index Models are Useful: Reply to Bio-Index Commentaries

11 Pages Posted: 10 Oct 2011

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Andreas Graefe

Macromedia University of Applied Sciences

Date Written: August 5, 2008

Abstract

This paper summarizes the key conditions under which the index method is valuable for forecasting and describes the procedures one should use when developing index models. The paper also addresses the specific concern of selecting inferior candidates when using the bio-index as a nomination helper. Political decision-makers should not use the bio-index as a stand-alone method but should combine forecasts from a variety of different methods that draw upon different information. .

Keywords: bio-index, forecasting, index methods, index models

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott and Graefe, Andreas, Conditions Under Which Index Models are Useful: Reply to Bio-Index Commentaries (August 5, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1938907 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1938907

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

Andreas Graefe

Macromedia University of Applied Sciences ( email )

Sandstrasse 9
Munich, Bavaria 80337
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.andreas-graefe.org

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