China's Economic Growth: International Spillovers

16 Pages Posted: 6 Oct 2011

See all articles by Vivek B. Arora

Vivek B. Arora

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - African Department

Athanasios Vamvakidis

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department

Date Written: September‐October 2011

Abstract

China's economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications of China's growth for other countries have been relatively neglected. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. The paper first presents some facts on China's role in the world economy, and then measures the impact of China's growth on growth in the rest of the world in both the short term and the long term. Short‐run estimates based on vector autoregression and error correction models suggest that spillover effects of China's growth have increased in recent decades. Long‐term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.

Keywords: China, growth, spillovers

JEL Classification: F15, F43

Suggested Citation

Arora, Vivek and Vamvakidis, Athanasios, China's Economic Growth: International Spillovers (September‐October 2011). China & World Economy, Vol. 19, Issue 5, pp. 31-46, 2011, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1939673 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2011.01257.x

Vivek Arora

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - African Department ( email )

700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Athanasios Vamvakidis

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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