A Generalized Jury Theorem
23 Pages Posted: 6 Oct 2011 Last revised: 10 Oct 2011
Date Written: October 5, 2011
The literature on information-aggregation based on the Condorcet Jury Theorem focuses on binary choices. By applying well-known statistical methods to this issue, we develop a framework of analysis capable of dealing with a broader set of choices, including choices over a continuum. We obtain two main results. First, we prove a Generalized Jury Theorem, including the Condorcet Jury Theorem as a special case. Second, we show that the Generalized Jury Theorem (rather than the Condorcet Jury Theorem) should be used to model the behavior of jurors, when jurors have a common goal and communicate before voting; the reason is that our framework allows for more efficient aggregation of information than the traditional framework. Our findings are illustrated by means of concrete applications.
Keywords: Condorcet, Jury Theorem, information-aggregation, committee, collegial courts, representative democracy
JEL Classification: D71, D72, D83, K49
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation