19 Pages Posted: 8 Oct 2011 Last revised: 19 Mar 2016
Date Written: October 7, 2011
We update our global evidence on the long-term realized equity risk premium, relative to both bills and bonds, in 19 different countries. Our study now runs from 1900 to the start of 2011. While there is considerable variation across countries, the realized equity risk premium was substantial everywhere. For our 19-country World index, over the entire 111 years, geometric mean real returns were an annualized 5.5%; the equity premium relative to Treasury bills was an annualized 4.5%; and the equity premium relative to long-term government bonds was an annualized 3.8%. The expected equity premium is lower, around 3% to 3½% on an annualized basis.
Keywords: equity risk premium, long run returns, international evidence, stocks bonds bills inflation
JEL Classification: E40, G12, G15, G23, N20
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