Forecasting

7 Pages Posted: 10 Oct 2011

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 9, 2011

Abstract

Forecasting procedures are needed only if there is uncertainty about the future. Forecasts are unnecessary when one can control events. For example, predicting the temperature in your home does not require the use of forecasting procedures because you can control it. A forecast that the sun will rise tomorrow is of little value. Many decisions, however, involve uncertainty, and in these cases formal forecasting procedures (referred to simply as "forecasting" below) can be useful. By reducing certainty about changes in the environment and by better predictions of the likely effects of policy changes, managers can make better decisions. They can also obtain a more realistic assessment of the risks they face.

Keywords: forecasting, predictions, methods

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, Forecasting (October 9, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1941250 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1941250

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

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United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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