Accounting for Anticipation Effects: An Application to Medical Malpractice Tort Reform

61 Pages Posted: 22 Oct 2011  

Anup Malani

University of Chicago - Law School; University of Chicago Pritzker School of Medicine; Resources for the Future; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Julian Reif

University of Chicago

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 17, 2011

Abstract

While conducting empirical work, researchers sometimes observe changes in outcomes before adoption of a new treatment program. The conventional diagnosis is that treatment is endogenous. Observing changes in outcomes prior to treatment is also consistent, however, with anticipation effects. This paper provides a framework for comparing the different methods for estimating anticipation effects and proposes a new set of instrumental variables that can address the problem that subjects' expectations are unobservable. The paper uses this framework to analyze the effect of tort reform on physician supply and finds that accounting for anticipation effects doubles the estimated effect of tort reform.

Suggested Citation

Malani, Anup and Reif, Julian, Accounting for Anticipation Effects: An Application to Medical Malpractice Tort Reform (October 17, 2011). U of Chicago Law & Economics, Olin Working Paper No. 578. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1945419 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1945419

Anup Malani (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Law School ( email )

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773-702-9602 (Phone)
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HOME PAGE: http://www.law.uchicago.edu/faculty/malani/

University of Chicago Pritzker School of Medicine

Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Resources for the Future

1616 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
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Julian Reif

University of Chicago ( email )

1101 East 58th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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