Financial Sector Ups and Downs and the Real Sector: Up by the Stairs, Down by the Parachute

47 Pages Posted: 22 Oct 2011

See all articles by Joshua Aizenman

Joshua Aizenman

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Brian Pinto

Independent

Vladyslav Sushko

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department

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Date Written: October 2011

Abstract

We examine how financial expansion and contraction cycles affect the broader economy through their impact on real economic sectors in a panel of countries over 1960-2005. Periods of accelerated growth of the financial sector are more likely to be followed by abrupt financial contractions than are periods of slower financial sector growth. Sharp fluctuations in the financial sector have strongly asymmetric effects, with the majority of real sectors adversely affected by contractions, but not helped by expansions. The adverse effects of financial contractions are transmitted almost exclusively through the financial openness channel, with precautionary foreign exchange reserve holdings serving as a key buffer.

Suggested Citation

Aizenman, Joshua and Pinto, Brian and Sushko, Vladyslav, Financial Sector Ups and Downs and the Real Sector: Up by the Stairs, Down by the Parachute (October 2011). NBER Working Paper No. w17530, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1947185

Joshua Aizenman (Contact Author)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Brian Pinto

Independent ( email )

No Address Available
United States

Vladyslav Sushko

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department ( email )

Centralbahnplatz 2
Basel, Basel-Stadt 4002
Switzerland

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