Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

36 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2011

See all articles by Morgan Bazilian

Morgan Bazilian

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Patrick Nussbaumer

United Nations - United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF)

Hans-Holger Rogner

International Atomic Energy Agency

Abeeku Brew-Hammond

The Energy Center

Vivien Foster

World Bank

Shonali Pachauri

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Eric Williams

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Mark Howells

KTH Technical University

Daniel M. Kammen

World Bank

Philippe Niyongabo

African Union Commission

Lawrence Musaba

Southern African Power Pool

Brian Ó Gallachóir

University College Cork

Mark Radka

United Nations - Environment Programme (UNEP)

Date Written: October 26, 2011

Abstract

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.

Keywords: energy access, power system planning, Sub-Saharan Africa

JEL Classification: C1, Q41, Q47

Suggested Citation

Bazilian, Morgan and Nussbaumer, Patrick and Rogner, Hans-Holger and Brew-Hammond, Abeeku and Foster, Vivien and Pachauri, Shonali and Williams, Eric and Howells, Mark and Kammen, Daniel M. and Niyongabo, Philippe and Musaba, Lawrence and Ó Gallachóir, Brian and Radka, Mark, Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa (October 26, 2011). FEEM Working Paper No. 68.2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1949612 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1949612

Morgan Bazilian (Contact Author)

National Renewable Energy Laboratory ( email )

1617 Cole Blvd.
Golden, CO 80401-3393
United States

Patrick Nussbaumer

United Nations - United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) ( email )

Camp Faouar
Golan
Syria

Hans-Holger Rogner

International Atomic Energy Agency ( email )

P.O. Box 100
Wagramer Strasse 5
Vienna, 134100
Austria

Abeeku Brew-Hammond

The Energy Center ( email )

Kumasi
Ghana

Vivien Foster

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Shonali Pachauri

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Eric Williams

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Mark Howells

KTH Technical University ( email )

Lindstedtsvägen 30-100 44
STOCKHOM, SE-100 44
Sweden

Daniel M. Kammen

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Philippe Niyongabo

African Union Commission

Addis Adaba
Ethiopia

Lawrence Musaba

Southern African Power Pool

Harare
Zimbabwe

Brian Ó Gallachóir

University College Cork

5 Bloomfield Terrace Western Road
Cork
Ireland

Mark Radka

United Nations - Environment Programme (UNEP)

12, G Georga Str Gr
19004 Spata-Attikis
Greece

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