Long-Run Forecasts of National Health Expenditure Growth

25 Pages Posted: 29 Oct 2011

See all articles by Thomas E. Getzen

Thomas E. Getzen

Temple University - Dept of Risk, Insurance & Health Management

Date Written: October 28, 2011

Abstract

The “state of the art” in forecasting long run medical spending is assessed in models used by CMS, CBO, and the Society of Actuaries. Tracking medical expenditures by nominal dollar growth and real per capita spending are useful, yet focusing on the share (of wages, laborforce, or GDP) provides the perspective most immediately applicable to policy and capable of providing the most robust long run forecasts. Spending limits appear to be a variable result of politics and budgetary constraints more than morbidity and mortality. Although death and taxes may be certainties, “when” and “how much” are not.

Keywords: Forecasting, Health Spending

JEL Classification: I1, H51, C53

Suggested Citation

Getzen, Thomas E., Long-Run Forecasts of National Health Expenditure Growth (October 28, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1950810 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1950810

Thomas E. Getzen (Contact Author)

Temple University - Dept of Risk, Insurance & Health Management ( email )

712 Cornelia Place
Philadelphia, PA 19118
United States
215 688-2233 (Phone)

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