38 Pages Posted: 8 Nov 2011 Last revised: 16 Feb 2013
Date Written: February 7, 2013
Traditional economic models of criminal behavior have straightforward predictions: raising the expected cost of crime via apprehension probabilities or punishments decreases crime. I test the forward and backward looking behavior of criminals using punishments from driving under the influence (DUI). Punishments are determined by strict rules on BAC and previous offenses. Regression discontinuity derived estimates suggest that having a BAC above the DUI threshold reduces recidivism by up to 2 percentage points (17 percent). As previous DUI violations increase future penalties for drunk driving, this is consistent with Beckerian models of criminal activity. However, enhanced penalties for aggravated DUI also reduce recidivism by an additional percentage point (9 percent), despite the fact that the enhanced punishments only affect the current penalties. This suggests criminals are bounded in their rationality, wherein expectations of future punishments are based upon previous punishments experienced.
Keywords: Recidivism, Deterrence, Crime, Law and Economics, Bounded Rationality, Drunk Driving, Regression Discontinuity
JEL Classification: K4, I1, D8
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation