Job Loss Fears and (Extreme) Party Identification: First Evidence from Panel Data

Center for European Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Paper Number 129

38 Pages Posted: 4 Jul 2012

See all articles by Ingo Geishecker

Ingo Geishecker

Georg-August-University Göttingen

Thomas Siedler

University of Hamburg - Faculty of Business, Economics, and Social Sciences; DIW Berlin; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); University of Essex

Date Written: October 1, 2011

Abstract

There is a large body of literature analyzing the relationship between objective economic conditions and voting behavior, but there is very little evidence of how perceived economic insecurity impacts on political preferences. Using seventeen years of household panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we examine whether job loss fears impact on individuals' party identification. Consistent with rational choice theory, we send strong and robust evidence that job loss fears foster affinity for parties at the far right-wing of the political spectrum. However, our empirical estimates do not suggest that job loss fears result in people withdrawing their support from political parties altogether.

Keywords: Job insecurity, party identifcation, prospective voting, economic worries

JEL Classification: J01, C23

Suggested Citation

Geishecker, Ingo and Siedler, Thomas, Job Loss Fears and (Extreme) Party Identification: First Evidence from Panel Data (October 1, 2011). Center for European Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Paper Number 129. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1956454 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1956454

Ingo Geishecker (Contact Author)

Georg-August-University Göttingen ( email )

Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3
Goettingen, 37073
Germany

Thomas Siedler

University of Hamburg - Faculty of Business, Economics, and Social Sciences ( email )

Von-Melle-Park 9
Hamburg, 20146
Germany

DIW Berlin ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

University of Essex ( email )

Wivenhoe Park
Colchester, CO4 3SQ
United Kingdom

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