The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions

75 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2011 Last revised: 6 Apr 2013

See all articles by Mikhail V. Oet

Mikhail V. Oet

Case Western Reserve University - Weatherhead School of Management; Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Ryan Eiben

Indiana University

Timothy Bianco

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Dieter Gramlich

Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Mosbach (DHBW)

Stephen J. Ong

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 28, 2011

Abstract

This paper develops a financial stress index for the United States, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI), which provides a continuous signal of financial stress and broad coverage of the areas that could indicate it. The index is based on daily public-market data collected from four sectors of the financial markets - the credit, foreign exchange, equity, and interbank markets. A dynamic weighting method is employed to capture changes in the relative importance of these four sectors as they occur. In addition, the design of the index allows the origin of the stress to be identified. We compare the CFSI to alternative indexes, using a detailed benchmarking methodology, and show how the CFSI can be applied to systemic stress monitoring and early warning system design. To that end, we investigate alternative stress-signaling thresholds and frequency regimes and then establish optimal frequencies for filtering out market noise and idiosyncratic episodes. Finally, we quantify a powerful CFSI-based rating system that assigns a probability of systemic stress to ranges of CFSI outcomes.

Keywords: Systemic risk, financial stress, financial stress index, early warning system

JEL Classification: G01, C22, C25, C52, C53, E32, E37

Suggested Citation

Oet, Mikhail V. and Eiben, Ryan and Bianco, Timothy and Gramlich, Dieter and Ong, Stephen J., The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions (October 28, 2011). FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 11-30. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1957405

Mikhail V. Oet (Contact Author)

Case Western Reserve University - Weatherhead School of Management ( email )

364 PBL Building
Cleveland, OH 44106
United States

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ( email )

East 6th & Superior
Cleveland, OH 44101-1387
United States
216.774.2684 (Phone)
216.579.2932 (Fax)

Ryan Eiben

Indiana University ( email )

107 S Indiana Ave
100 South Woodlawn
Bloomington, IN 47405
United States

Timothy Bianco

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ( email )

East 6th & Superior
Cleveland, OH 44101-1387
United States

Dieter Gramlich

Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Mosbach (DHBW) ( email )

Lohrtalweg 10
Mosbach, 74821
Germany

Stephen J. Ong

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ( email )

East 6th & Superior
Cleveland, OH 44101-1387
United States

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