Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The Role of Credit Aggregates
39 Pages Posted: 14 Nov 2011
Date Written: November 1, 2011
We investigate the performance of different variables as anchors for setting the level of the countercyclical regulatory capital buffer requirements for banks. The gap between the ratio of credit-to-GDP and its long-term backward-looking trend performs best as an indicator for the accumulation of capital as this variable captures the build-up of system-wide vulnerabilities that typically lead to banking crises. Other indicators, such as credit spreads, are better in indicating the release phase as they are contemporaneous signals of banking sector distress that can precede a credit crunch.
Keywords: countercyclical capital buffers, financial stability, procyclicality
JEL Classification: E44, E61, G21
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation