Violence, Political Instability, and International Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector

26 Pages Posted: 22 Nov 2011

See all articles by Andrew Muhammad

Andrew Muhammad

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) - Economic Research Service (ERS)

Anna D'Souza

School of Public Affairs, Baruch College, CUNY

William Amponsah

Georgia Southern University

Date Written: October 1, 2011

Abstract

We assess whether and how violence and political instability affect trade between developed and developing countries considering the special case of EU imports of Kenyan roses after the 2007/08 post-election violence and political instability in Kenya. Using the Rotterdam model to estimate EU demand for roses from Kenya and other global competitors, we find evidence of a structural change in the import growth rate for Kenya, approximately equivalent to an 18.6% tariff. These results highlight the importance of non-tariff barriers to trade and contribute to the growing literature on the role of insecurity and instability in hindering international trade.

Keywords: Kenya, Africa, EU, election violence, cut flowers, roses, imports, international trade

JEL Classification: F14, F23, F59, O13, Q17

Suggested Citation

Muhammad, Andrew and D'Souza, Anna E. and Amponsah, William, Violence, Political Instability, and International Trade: Evidence from Kenya’s Cut Flower Sector (October 1, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1961207 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1961207

Andrew Muhammad

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) - Economic Research Service (ERS) ( email )

355 E Street, SW
Washington, DC 20024-3221
United States

Anna E. D'Souza (Contact Author)

School of Public Affairs, Baruch College, CUNY ( email )

One Bernard Baruch Way
Box D-0901
New York, NY NY 10010
United States
646-660-6810 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/annadsouza/

William Amponsah

Georgia Southern University ( email )

P.O. Box 8151
Statesboro, GA 30460-8151
United States

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