Modeling Supply-Side Dynamics of IT Components, Products, and Infrastructure: An Empirical Analysis Using Vector Autoregression

Information Systems Research, Forthcoming.

55 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2011 Last revised: 20 Nov 2011

See all articles by Jesse Bockstedt

Jesse Bockstedt

University of Arizona - Department of Management Information Systems

Gediminas Adomavicius

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Carlson School of Management

Alok Gupta

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Carlson School of Management

Date Written: July 26, 2010

Abstract

Prior IS research on technological change has focused primarily on organizational information systems and technology (IS&T) innovation; however, there is a growing need to understand the dynamics of supply-side forces in the introduction of new technologies. In this paper we investigate how the interdependencies among information technology components, products, and infrastructure affect the release of new technologies. Going beyond the ad hoc heuristic approaches applied in previous studies, we empirically validate the existence of several patterns of supply-side technology relationships in the context of wireless networking. We use vector autoregression (VAR) to model the co-movements of new component, product, and infrastructure introductions and provide evidence of strong Granger-causal interdependencies. We also demonstrate that substantial improvements in forecasting can be gained by incorporating these cross-level effects into models of technological change. This paper provides some of the first research that empirically demonstrates these cross-level effects and also provides an exposition of VAR methodology for both analysis and forecasting in IS research.

Keywords: information systems and technology trends, supply-side forces, technological change, technology ecosystems, technology forecasting, time series analysis, vector autoregression

Suggested Citation

Bockstedt, Jesse and Adomavicius, Gediminas and Gupta, Alok, Modeling Supply-Side Dynamics of IT Components, Products, and Infrastructure: An Empirical Analysis Using Vector Autoregression (July 26, 2010). Information Systems Research, Forthcoming., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1961248

Jesse Bockstedt (Contact Author)

University of Arizona - Department of Management Information Systems ( email )

AZ
United States

Gediminas Adomavicius

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Carlson School of Management ( email )

19th Avenue South
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

Alok Gupta

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Carlson School of Management ( email )

19th Avenue South
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

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