Order Flow and Expected Option Returns

57 Pages Posted: 23 Nov 2011 Last revised: 5 Nov 2015

See all articles by Dmitriy Muravyev

Dmitriy Muravyev

Michigan State University - Department of Finance; Canadian Derivatives Institute

Date Written: January 20, 2015


I show that the inventory risk faced by market-makers has a first-order effect on option prices. I introduce a simple approach that decomposes the price impact of trades into inventory risk and asymmetric information components. While both components are large for option trades, the inventory risk component is larger. Using the full panel of daily option returns, I find that option order imbalances attributable to inventory risk have five times larger impact on option prices than previously thought. Finally, I find that past order imbalances have greater predictive power than any other commonly used predictor of option returns.

Keywords: Option returns, order imbalance, inventory, equity options

JEL Classification: G14, G10, G12, G13

Suggested Citation

Muravyev, Dmitriy, Order Flow and Expected Option Returns (January 20, 2015). Journal of Finance, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1963865 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1963865

Dmitriy Muravyev (Contact Author)

Michigan State University - Department of Finance ( email )

315 Eppley Center
East Lansing, MI 48824-1122
United States

Canadian Derivatives Institute ( email )

3000, chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine
Montréal, Québec H3T 2A7

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