Estimating and Predicting the Distribution of the Number of Visits to the Medical Doctor

17 Pages Posted: 29 Nov 2011

See all articles by Jing Dai

Jing Dai

University of Kassel - Department of Economics

Walter Zucchini

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Stefan Sperlich

Université de Genève, GSEM

Date Written: November 24, 2011

Abstract

In many countries the demand for health care services is of increasing importance. Especially in the industrialized world with a changing demographic structure social insurances and politics face real challenges. Reliable predictors of those demand functions will therefore become invaluable tools. This article proposes a prediction method for the distribution of the number of visits to the medical doctor for a determined population, given a sample that is not necessarily taken from that population. It uses the estimated conditional sample distribution, and it can be applied for forecast scenarios. The methods are illustrated along data from Sidney. The introduced methodology can be applied as well to any other prediction problem of discrete distributions in real, future or any fictitious population. It is therefore also an excellent tool for future predictions, scenarios and policy evaluation.

Keywords: predicting health care demand, visits to the doctor, health economics, model selection

JEL Classification: I12, C51, C53, H75

Suggested Citation

Dai, Jing and Zucchini, Walter and Sperlich, Stefan, Estimating and Predicting the Distribution of the Number of Visits to the Medical Doctor (November 24, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1964285 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1964285

Jing Dai (Contact Author)

University of Kassel - Department of Economics ( email )

Nora-Platiel Str. 4
34109 Kassel
Germany

Walter Zucchini

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Stefan Sperlich

Université de Genève, GSEM ( email )

40, Bd du Pont d'Arve
Geneva, CH-1211
Switzerland

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