39 Pages Posted: 23 Feb 2012 Last revised: 8 Mar 2012
Date Written: December 1, 2011
In April 1993, Georgia instituted new parole guidelines that led to longer prison terms for parole-eligible offenders. This paper shows that an extra year of prison reduces the three-year recidivism rate by 6 percentage points (14 percent); and the beneﬁts of preventing this crime are likely outweighed by the costs of this additional incarceration.
I develop a new econometric framework to jointly estimate the effects of rehabilitation, incapacitation, and aging in reducing crime. Estimates of incapacitation effects using existing methodologies are biased upward by at least a factor of two because they focus on a short time horizon.
JEL Classification: J0, K14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation