Modelling the Spatiotemporal Distribution of the Incidence of Resident Foreign Population

Statistica Neerlandica, 66 (2), 133-160

31 Pages Posted: 28 Nov 2011 Last revised: 27 Dec 2013

See all articles by Giampiero Marra

Giampiero Marra

University College London

David Miller

University of Bath

Luca Zanin

Prometeia

Date Written: April 12, 2012

Abstract

Many European countries have recently experienced a substantial increase in the proportion of immigrants in their populations. The incidence of resident foreigners calculated at a national level does not provide information on the local spatial and temporal distribution of the phenomenon. This information may be of crucial importance for planning local policies. In this article, we suggest a tool for practitioners to provide spatiotemporal maps representing the local distribution of the incidence of resident foreigners in the territory, and changes in spatial trends over time. We illustrate this with Italian data at a municipal level, for the period 2003–2008. To account for spatiotemporal interactions in the data, we propose using a generalized additive model incorporating a smoother of the time and space dimensions. Specifically, we set up a tensor product smoother combining a cubic regression spline basis for time and a soap film spline basis for space. This approach provides a consistent framework to produce spatiotemporal maps which could be effectively used by policy makers to decide the allocation of economic resources at a local level.

Keywords: generalized additive model, incidence of resident foreigners, soap film spline basis, spatiotemporal maps, tensor product smoother

JEL Classification: C14

Suggested Citation

Marra, Giampiero and Miller, David and Zanin, Luca, Modelling the Spatiotemporal Distribution of the Incidence of Resident Foreign Population (April 12, 2012). Statistica Neerlandica, 66 (2), 133-160, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1965497

Giampiero Marra

University College London ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

David Miller

University of Bath ( email )

Claverton Down
Bath, BA2 7AY
United Kingdom

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