The Drivers of International Migration to the UK: A Panel‐Based Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

47 Pages Posted: 3 Dec 2011

See all articles by James Mitchell

James Mitchell

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Nigel Pain

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Rebecca Riley

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Date Written: December 2011

Abstract

A heterogeneous panel‐based Bayesian model averaging approach is used to identify the robust economic and policy drivers of international migration to the UK from 14 different source regions over 1980–2007. Around three‐quarters of the increase in net immigration over the last decade, which is particularly pronounced for selected source regions, is associated with structural change, which may be attributed to UK and foreign immigration policy. The remainder of the rise is largely explained by ‘friends and family’ effects. There are considerable uncertainties associated both with the effects of particular economic drivers of immigration and with forecasts of immigration.

Suggested Citation

Mitchell, James and Pain, Nigel and Riley, Rebecca, The Drivers of International Migration to the UK: A Panel‐Based Bayesian Model Averaging Approach (December 2011). The Economic Journal, Vol. 121, Issue 557, pp. 1398-1444, 2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1967353 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02459.x

James Mitchell (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Nigel Pain

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ( email )

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom
0171 222 7665 (Phone)
0171 654 1900 (Fax)

Rebecca Riley

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ( email )

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London, SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom

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