Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda

48 Pages Posted: 16 Dec 2011

See all articles by Dominic Rohner

Dominic Rohner

University of Zurich

Mathias Thoenig

University of Lausanne

Fabrizio Zilibotti

Yale University; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 1, 2011

Abstract

We study the effect of civil conflict on social capital, focusing on the experience of Uganda during the last decade. Using individual and county-level data, we document causal effects on trust and ethnic identity of an exogenous outburst of ethnic conflicts in 2002-04. We exploit two waves of survey data from Afrobarometer 2000 and 2008, including information on socioeconomic characteristics at the individual level, and geo-referenced measures of fighting events from ACLED. Our identification strategy exploits variations in the intensity of fighting both in the spatial and cross-ethnic dimensions. We find that more intense fighting decreases generalized trust and increases ethnic identity. The effects are quantitatively large and robust to a number of control variables, alternative measures of violence, and different statistical techniques involving ethnic and county fixed effects and instrumental variables. We also document that the post-war effects of ethnic violence depend on the ethnic fractionalization. Fighting has a negative effect on the economic situation in highly fractionalized counties, but has no effect in less fractionalized counties. Our findings are consistent with the existence of a self-reinforcing process between conflicts and ethnic cleavages.

Keywords: conflict, trust, ethnic fighting, Uganda, social capital, identity

JEL Classification: D74, O12, Z1

Suggested Citation

Rohner, Dominic and Thoenig, Mathias and Zilibotti, Fabrizio, Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda (December 1, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1972310 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1972310

Dominic Rohner (Contact Author)

University of Zurich ( email )

Muehlebachstrasse 86
Zurich, 8008
Switzerland

Mathias Thoenig

University of Lausanne ( email )

Fabrizio Zilibotti

Yale University ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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