The Gloomy Scenario of Italy's Default

ECMI Commentary, No. 31, December 2011

5 Pages Posted: 18 Dec 2011  

Diego Valiante

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: December 16, 2011

Abstract

What will happen if Italy is not able to implement structural reforms and if international institutions, such as the EFSF and the IMF, do not intervene with sufficient resources to prevent Europe’s second-largest economy from defaulting on its debt? The potential costs of such a scenario are, as of today, unquantifiable. But what we can anticipate is that the Italian economic system would certainly embark on a perverse path that would follow three phases: liquidity crisis and insolvency; deflationary pressures; and finally inflationary pressures and economic and political instability.

Keywords: Eurozone debt crisis, sovereign default, public finance

JEL Classification: E60, E61, E62, F30, H60, H63

Suggested Citation

Valiante, Diego, The Gloomy Scenario of Italy's Default (December 16, 2011). ECMI Commentary, No. 31, December 2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1974076

Diego Valiante (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
54
Rank
310,726
Abstract Views
289