Growth, Cycles, Asset Prices and Finance

24 Pages Posted: 10 Jan 2012

See all articles by Lance Taylor

Lance Taylor

The New School - Bernard Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA)

Date Written: February 2012

Abstract

Several Kaleckian models are set out. Harrod‐ and Domar‐style investment functions are specified, and combined with distributive dynamics to generate Goodwin‐style cycles. A counterclockwise cycle in a two‐dimensional phase diagram for capacity utilization and the wage share is based on long‐run profit‐led demand and a profit squeeze at high activity levels, consistent with Domar. Harrod‐style investment and short‐run wage‐led demand generate counterfactual clockwise cycles. Financial dynamics involving the equity valuation ratio are considered. Both the ratio and equity price inflation demonstrate positive own‐feedback. The ratio can be stabilized cyclically by capital stock growth and/or rising household net worth or debt. Debt accumulation persists (or ‘overshoots’) after equity price inflation switches to a negative rate. A Minsky‐style model with Harrodian investment can be stabilized by accumulation of business debt.

Suggested Citation

Taylor, Lance, Growth, Cycles, Asset Prices and Finance (February 2012). Metroeconomica, Vol. 63, Issue 1, pp. 40-63, 2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1982357 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2010.04117.x

Lance Taylor (Contact Author)

The New School - Bernard Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA) ( email )

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