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Paving the Path to Accurately Predicting Legal Outcomes: A Comment on Professor Chien’s Predicting Patent Litigation

15 Pages Posted: 18 Jan 2012 Last revised: 19 Apr 2012

Jay P. Kesan

University of Illinois College of Law

David L. Schwartz

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law

Ted M. Sichelman

University of San Diego School of Law

Date Written: January 17, 2012

Abstract

Professor Colleen Chien recently developed an innovative and important model that relies on a patent's "after-acquired" characteristics to predict the chances that the patent will be involved in litigation. This comment critiques Professor Chien's model by identifying certain weaknesses, including that its dataset is limited to 1990 patents and its sample size may be too small to be sufficiently representative, as well as a number of endogeneity concerns. Additionally, we seek a more precise definition of data regarding the patent owner, further categorization of reexamination data, and research into the timing of transfer. Finally, we question her policy recommendations given these weaknesses and propose areas of further inquiry.

Keywords: patent litigation, predicting, patent, federal circuit, outcomes, empirical

JEL Classification: O31, O34

Suggested Citation

Kesan, Jay P. and Schwartz, David L. and Sichelman, Ted M., Paving the Path to Accurately Predicting Legal Outcomes: A Comment on Professor Chien’s Predicting Patent Litigation (January 17, 2012). Texas Law Review See Also, Vol. 90, pp. 97-109, 2012; San Diego Legal Studies Paper No. 12-079; Illinois Public Law Research Paper No. 11-12; Illinois Program in Law, Behavior and Social Science Paper No. LBSS12-09. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1987258

Jay Kesan

University of Illinois College of Law ( email )

504 E. Pennsylvania Avenue
Champaign, IL 61820
United States
217-333-7887 (Phone)
217-244-1478 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.jaykesan.com

David Schwartz (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law ( email )

375 E. Chicago Ave
Chicago, IL 60611
United States

Ted Sichelman

University of San Diego School of Law ( email )

5998 Alcala Park
San Diego, CA 92110-2492
United States
(619) 260-7512 (Phone)
(619) 260-2748 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.sandiego.edu/law/faculty/profiles/bio.php?ID=795

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