Quantity Rationing of Credit

Abstract

Quantity rationing of credit, when firms are denied loans, has greater potential to explain macroeconomic fluctuations than borrowing costs. This paper develops a DSGE model with both types of financial frictions. A deterioration in credit market confidence leads to a temporary change in the interest rate, but a persistent change in the fraction of firms receiving financing, which leads to a persistent fall in real activity. Empirical evidence confirms that credit market confidence, measured by the survey of loan officers, is a significant leading indicator for capacity utilization and output, while borrowing costs, measured by interest rate spreads, is not.​

Keywords: quantity rationing, credit, VAR

JEL Classification: E10, E24, E44, E50