Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro Finance

39 Pages Posted: 22 Jan 2012 Last revised: 26 Feb 2012

See all articles by Karim M. Abadir

Karim M. Abadir

Imperial College Business School

Gabriel Talmain

University of York - Department of Economics and Related Studies

Date Written: January 21, 2012

Abstract

Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series share an unconventional type of nonlinear dynamics. Existing techniques (like co-integration) model these dynamics incompletely, hence generating seemingly paradoxical results. To avoid this, we provide a methodology to disentangle the long-run relation between variables from their own dynamics, and illustrate with two applications.

First, in the forward-premium puzzle, adding a component quantifying the persistent nonlinear dynamics of exchange rates yields substantial predictability and makes the forward-premium term insignificant. Second, S&P 500 grows in a pattern of momentum followed by reversal, forming long cycles around a trend given by GDP, a stable non-breaking relation since WWII.

Suggested Citation

Abadir, Karim M. and Talmain, Gabriel, Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro Finance (January 21, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1989417 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1989417

Karim M. Abadir (Contact Author)

Imperial College Business School ( email )

South Kensington Campus
Exhibition Road
London SW7 2AZ, SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/portal/page?_pageid=61,629646&_dad=portallive&_schema=PORTALLIVE

Gabriel Talmain

University of York - Department of Economics and Related Studies ( email )

Heslington
York, YO1 5DD
United Kingdom

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