Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy
Posted: 24 Jan 2012
Date Written: January 23, 2012
Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth and parsimonious polynomial curve across all age groups. They also performed robustness checks and produced forecasts for the coming decade, with all the necessary caveats.
Keywords: Economics, Economic Growth and Development, Equity Investments, Equity Market Valuation and Return Analysis, Analysis of World Security Markets, Fixed Income, Macroeconomic Effects on Fixed-Income Yields, Portfolio Management, Economic Analysis and Capital Market Expectations
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation