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Business Cycles and Regime-Shift Risk

Wei Yang

Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Finance

December 1, 2011

The consumption growth data strongly favor a two-regime specification. The high volatility, low growth regime is associated with deep recessions: the Great Depression, the recession of 1937-1938, the post-war recession of 1945, and the most recent financial crisis. I develop parsimonious models in which (i) consumption and dividend growth follow regime-switching dynamics, (ii) the regime characteristics are consistent with the empirical evidence from the consumption growth data, and (iii) the risks associated with regime shifts are priced in asset markets. The models explain major regime-dependent asset market phenomena. Regime-shift risk exhibits the dominant influence on asset prices: It generates a high equity premium, and also induces time-varying risk premiums and explains the return predictability.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 58

Keywords: Regime shifts, business cycles, equity premium, return predictability

JEL Classification: G12, E21

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Date posted: January 26, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Yang, Wei, Business Cycles and Regime-Shift Risk (December 1, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1991694 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1991694

Contact Information

Wei Yang (Contact Author)
Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Finance ( email )
1309 E. 10th St.
Bloomington, IN 47405
United States

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