Aggregate Earnings and Corporate Bond Markets

38 Pages Posted: 25 Jan 2012 Last revised: 16 Nov 2013

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 8, 2013

Abstract

I examine the previously unexplored relation between aggregate earnings changes and corporate bond market returns. I find that aggregate earnings changes have a negative relation to investment-grade corporate bond market returns and a positive relation to high-yield corporate bond market returns. The aggregate earnings-returns relation is lower (i.e., less positive or more negative) for bonds with higher credit ratings and longer maturities. Further, I show that the aggregate earnings-returns relation is driven by both the expected and the news component of aggregate earnings changes. The expected component is negatively related to expected returns, and the news component is positively related to cash flow news and changes in nominal interest rates, and negatively related to changes in default premia. My results contribute to the understanding of the role of earnings in corporate bond markets as well as the macroeconomic role of accounting information.

Keywords: aggregate earnings, corporate bond, discount rate, cash flow

JEL Classification: E10, G12, G14, M41

Suggested Citation

Gkougkousi, Xanthi, Aggregate Earnings and Corporate Bond Markets (September 8, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1991777 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1991777

Xanthi Gkougkousi (Contact Author)

Compass Lexecon ( email )

United States

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