Predicting a Community Wide Outcome from Local Information
Nottingham University Business School
January 26, 2012
Nottingham University Business School Research Paper No. 2012-02
The ability of a network node to predict a community wide outcome solely from the decision of its neighbors is explored. A community wide outcome is defined as the consensus decision of 80% of the network's members. This paper presents a new algorithm that can be used to generate a network with the characteristics of social networks. This is used to simulate a community that over discrete time period collectively decides to like or not something unspecified, but it could be imagined as a song, a film, a holiday resort, etc. The network nodes are analyzed for their ability to predict from the behavior of their neighbor nodes what the community outcome will be.
Keywords: social network, consensus decision, simulation
Date posted: January 26, 2012