Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices

57 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2012

See all articles by Leonid Kogan

Leonid Kogan

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Dimitris Papanikolaou

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: January 2012

Abstract

We explore the impact of investment-specific technology (IST) shocks on the crosssection of stock returns. IST shocks reflect technological advances embodied in new capital goods. Using a structural model, we show that IST shocks have a differential effect on the two fundamental components of firm value, the value of assets in place and the value of growth opportunities. This differential sensitivity to IST shocks has two main implications. First, risk premia on firms with abundant growth opportunities are different from those on firms with limited growth opportunities. Second, firms with similar levels of growth opportunities comove with each other, giving rise to the value factor in stock returns. Our model replicates the failure of the conditional CAPM to capture the value premium. Our empirical tests confirm the model's predictions for asset returns and investment rates.

Suggested Citation

Kogan, Leonid and Papanikolaou, Dimitris, Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices (January 2012). NBER Working Paper No. w17795. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1992831

Leonid Kogan (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://web.mit.edu/lkogan2/www/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Dimitris Papanikolaou

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management - Department of Finance ( email )

Evanston, IL 60208
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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