A Projection Model of the Contributory Pension Expenditure of the Spanish Social Security System: 2004-50

36 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2012

See all articles by Joan Gil

Joan Gil

University of Barcelona

Miguel-Angel Lopez-Garcia

Autonomous University of Barcelona - Department of Applied Economics

Jorge Onrubia

Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)

Concepcio Patxot

University of Barcelona - Department of Economic Theory

Guadalupe Souto

Autonomous University of Barcelona

Date Written: April 3, 2008

Abstract

The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic change. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8%. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, contrary to what one could expect, the projection shows a higher growth of the number of contributory pensions accruing to men.

Keywords: Pensions system, sustainability, public expenditure

JEL Classification: E62, H55

Suggested Citation

Gil, Joan and Lopez-Garcia, Miguel-Angel and Onrubia, Jorge and Patxot Cardoner, Concepcio and Souto, Guadalupe, A Projection Model of the Contributory Pension Expenditure of the Spanish Social Security System: 2004-50 (April 3, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1996491 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1996491

Joan Gil

University of Barcelona ( email )

Department of Economic Theory
Faculty of Economics
Barcelona, Barcelona 08034
Spain

Miguel-Angel Lopez-Garcia

Autonomous University of Barcelona - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

Departamento de Economía Aplicada
Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Jorge Onrubia

Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) ( email )

Carretera de Humera s/n
Madrid, Madrid 28223
Spain

Concepcio Patxot Cardoner (Contact Author)

University of Barcelona - Department of Economic Theory ( email )

Barcelona
Spain

Guadalupe Souto

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

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