Health-Care Expenditure Projections: Results, Policy Conclusions and Recommendations for Future Work

28 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2012

See all articles by Bartosz Przywara

Bartosz Przywara

European Union - European Commission

Declan Costello

European Union - European Commission

Date Written: April 3, 2008

Abstract

This paper notes that the dynamics of public expenditure on health care is determined not only by changes in the age structure but also by a set of interrelated demand and supply factors, which are often exogenous to policy decisions. Therefore, reliable projections should account for such non-demographic factors. The authors first describe the projection methodology employed by the European Commission and the Aging Working Group and present the main results. They then discuss possible methodological improvements. In particular, they suggest that a better understanding of the interactions between public and private spending on health could improve the projections. Moreover, some efforts should be devoted to the analysis of supply side factors and to enhancing the comparability of the input data collected from national authorities. It would also be useful to attach probabilities to the shocks introduced in each scenario. Finally, linking the projection results to the institutional setting of each country would enhance the policy relevance of the exercise.

Suggested Citation

Przywara, Bartosz and Costello, Declan, Health-Care Expenditure Projections: Results, Policy Conclusions and Recommendations for Future Work (April 3, 2008). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1997199 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1997199

Bartosz Przywara (Contact Author)

European Union - European Commission ( email )

Rue de la Loi 200
Brussels, B-1049
Belgium

Declan Costello

European Union - European Commission ( email )

Rue de la Loi 200
Brussels, B-1049
Belgium

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