Catching a Floating Treasure: A Genuine Ex-Ante Forecasting Experiment in Real Time

KOF Swiss Economic Institute Working Paper No. 297

30 Pages Posted: 6 Feb 2012

See all articles by Christian Müller-Kademann

Christian Müller-Kademann

Jacobs University

Eva M. Kberl

ETH Zürich - Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research

Date Written: January 30, 2012

Abstract

Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It highlights the difficulties of hitting a moving target and shows that in a realistic setting linear models in combination with survey data perform as good as much more sophisticated approaches.

Keywords: forecasting, GDP revisions, survey data, experiment

JEL Classification: E37, C35

Suggested Citation

Müller-Kademann, Christian and Köberl, Eva Maria, Catching a Floating Treasure: A Genuine Ex-Ante Forecasting Experiment in Real Time (January 30, 2012). KOF Swiss Economic Institute Working Paper No. 297, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1999409 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1999409

Christian Müller-Kademann (Contact Author)

Jacobs University

Campus Ring 1
Research V, Room 40
Bremen, 28759
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.s-e-i.ch

Eva Maria Köberl

ETH Zürich - Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research ( email )

Weinbergstrasse 35
CH-8092 Zurich
Switzerland
+41 44 632 50 90 (Phone)

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