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The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences

38 Pages Posted: 12 Feb 2012  

Oded Galor

Brown University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth.

Keywords: demographic transition, gender gap, human capital, fertility, mortality, Unified Growth Theory

JEL Classification: O10, J1

Suggested Citation

Galor, Oded, The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences. IZA Discussion Paper No. 6334. Available at SSRN:

Oded Galor (Contact Author)

Brown University - Department of Economics ( email )

Providence, RI 02912
United States


Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom


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