Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios for Aviation Derived from IPCC Storylines: A Meta-Analysis
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 17, pp. 61-65, 2012
13 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2012 Last revised: 19 Nov 2014
Date Written: February 12, 2012
This research summarises the aviation CO2 emissions studies that use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IS92 and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios storylines as GDP growth assumptions to estimate future global carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector. The inter-quartile mean and the ﬁrst and third quartiles are calculated to enable researches studying climate change policies for aviation to use an average global baseline scenario with lower and upper boundaries. We also perform a simple meta-analysis to analyse the assumptions used to derive the baseline scenario and conclude, as expected, that change in revenue-tonne-kilometres and fuel-efﬁciency are the main drivers behind the baseline scenarios.
Keywords: Aviation emissions Aviation sustainability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scenarios, Meta-analysis
JEL Classification: L9, R4
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation