Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios for Aviation Derived from IPCC Storylines: A Meta-Analysis

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 17, pp. 61-65, 2012

13 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2012 Last revised: 19 Nov 2014

Date Written: February 12, 2012

Abstract

This research summarises the aviation CO2 emissions studies that use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IS92 and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios storylines as GDP growth assumptions to estimate future global carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector. The inter-quartile mean and the first and third quartiles are calculated to enable researches studying climate change policies for aviation to use an average global baseline scenario with lower and upper boundaries. We also perform a simple meta-analysis to analyse the assumptions used to derive the baseline scenario and conclude, as expected, that change in revenue-tonne-kilometres and fuel-efficiency are the main drivers behind the baseline scenarios.

Keywords: Aviation emissions Aviation sustainability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scenarios, Meta-analysis

JEL Classification: L9, R4

Suggested Citation

Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar and Anger, Annela, Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios for Aviation Derived from IPCC Storylines: A Meta-Analysis (February 12, 2012). Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 17, pp. 61-65, 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2003798

Sveinn Vidar Gudmundsson (Contact Author)

Toulouse Business School ( email )

20, bd Lascrosses
Toulouse, 31068
France

HOME PAGE: http://www.tbs-education.fr

Annela Anger

University of Cambridge ( email )

Trinity Ln
Cambridge, CB2 1TN
United Kingdom

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