Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India

CAMA Working Paper No. 6/2012

29 Pages Posted: 17 Feb 2012

See all articles by Jane Golley

Jane Golley

Australian National University (ANU) - Faculty of Economics & Commerce; Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Rod Tyers

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics; The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics

Date Written: February 1, 2012

Abstract

The world's two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working aged to non-working aged. While much of China's demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation” for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India's potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of policy choices.

Keywords: China, India, demographic change, economic growth

JEL Classification: C68, E27, F43, J11, O53

Suggested Citation

Golley, Jane and Tyers, Rod, Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India (February 1, 2012). CAMA Working Paper No. 6/2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2006069 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2006069

Jane Golley

Australian National University (ANU) - Faculty of Economics & Commerce ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

ANU College of Asia and the Pacific
J.G. Crawford Building, #132, Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

Rod Tyers (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics ( email )

Arndt Building
Australian National University
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia
61-6-249-5124 (Fax)

The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics ( email )

35 Stirling Highway
Crawley, Western Australia 6009
Australia
61 8 6488 5632 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/staff-profiles?type=profile&dn=cn%3DRodney%20Tyers%2Cou%3DEcon

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