On the Forecast Accuracy and Consistency of Exchange Rate Expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey
DEFI Working Paper No. 12-02
9 Pages Posted: 24 Feb 2012
Date Written: February 21, 2012
We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the short-run and destabilizing expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.
Keywords: Exchange rates, Forecasting, Expectations, Panel data, Econometric models
JEL Classification: F31, D84, C33
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation