A Probit Model for Presidential Elections in Terms of Relative Height and Desire for Change

Abstract

We develop a simple probit model to estimate the probability of a Republican win in the U.S. Presidential Election. We consider the relative height and weight of the candidates and also the electorates desire for change and the power of incumbency. We find that height difference and "change" are the only significant predictor variables of those considered. We find that the model has an in-sample forecasting skill of 54% and use the bootstrap to estimate a confidence limit on that skill. We predict the relative chances the the current Republican primary candidates of beating the incumbent Democratic president, Barack Obama. Finally we study the trend in candidate height throughout the dataset and find that it is significantly upwards, possibly indicating the participant's awareness of this effect.

Keywords: probit model, presidential election, stature, weight, incumbency, change, United States

JEL Classification: D72