Scenarios for Global Ageing: An Investigation with the Ingenue 2 World Model

ENEPRI Research Reports No. 9

45 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2012  

Michel Aglietta

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Vladimir Borgy

Banque de France

Jean Chateau

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Michel Juillard

Banque de France - Economic Study and Research Division

Jacques Le Cacheux

Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE)

Gilles Le Garrec

Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE)

Vincent Touze

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: July 1, 2005

Abstract

This paper explores the consequences of pension reforms in Western Europe in a world economy setting. Whereas various economic and social consequences of population ageing have been investigated in OECD countries, very few analyses have explicitly taken the worldwide aspect of the problem into account. In order to do so, this report relies on the latest version of the INGENUE World Model (2). This applied, international, overlapping-generations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy has been built specifically to analyze the international capital flows and growth dynamics induced by the different degrees of population ageing taking place in the various regions of the world. After a description of the major features of the baseline scenario of the model for the world economy over the next 50 years, the authors explore the domestic and international macroeconomic consequences of two scenarios of pension reform in Western Europe as well as their intergenerational distributional effects. These scenarios are then compared with a specific migration scenario, making use of the new features of the INGENUE 2 model.

Keywords: global ageing, ageing, INGENUE 2 World Model, Western Europe, pension reform

Suggested Citation

Aglietta, Michel and Borgy, Vladimir and Chateau, Jean and Juillard, Michel and Le Cacheux, Jacques and Le Garrec, Gilles and Touze, Vincent, Scenarios for Global Ageing: An Investigation with the Ingenue 2 World Model (July 1, 2005). ENEPRI Research Reports No. 9. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2012291 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2012291

Michel Aglietta (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Vladimir Borgy

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

Jean Chateau

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Michel Juillard

Banque de France - Economic Study and Research Division ( email )

31, rue Croix des Petits Champs
75049 Paris Cedex 01
FRANCE

Jacques Le Cacheux

Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) ( email )

69 Quai d'Orsay
Paris 75004
France

Gilles Le Garrec

Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) ( email )

69 Quai d'Orsay
Paris 75004
France

Vincent Touze

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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