Opium in Afghanistan: Prospects for the Success of Source Country Drug Control Policies

The Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 51, No. 3, pp. 407-432, 2008

Posted: 29 Feb 2012

See all articles by Jeffrey P. Clemens

Jeffrey P. Clemens

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Department of Economics; NBER

Date Written: February, 29 2012

Abstract

Recent estimates suggest that in 2007, Afghan opiate production accounted for about 93% of the world’s total. This paper presents a framework for estimating the potential for source-country drug-control policies to reduce this production. It contains a first pass at estimating the potential for policy to shift the opium supply curve upward, as well as a range of supply and demand elasticities. The estimates suggest that meager reductions in production can be expected through alternative development programs alone (reductions are less than 6.5% in all but one of the specifications presented). They also suggest that substantial increases in crop eradication would be needed to achieve even moderate reductions in production (reductions range from 3.0% to 19.4% for various specifications). The results also imply that, all else equal, the cessation of crop eradication would result in only modest increases in opiate production (with estimates ranging from 1.6% to 9.6%).

Suggested Citation

Clemens, Jeffrey P., Opium in Afghanistan: Prospects for the Success of Source Country Drug Control Policies (February, 29 2012). The Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 51, No. 3, pp. 407-432, 2008 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2013538

Jeffrey P. Clemens (Contact Author)

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Department of Economics ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~j1clemens/

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