Equilibrium Growth, Inflation, and Bond Yields

50 Pages Posted: 1 Mar 2012 Last revised: 4 Jun 2012

See all articles by Howard Kung

Howard Kung

London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: June 1, 2012

Abstract

This paper explores bond pricing implications of a stochastic endogenous growth model with imperfect price adjustment. In this setting, the production and price-setting decisions of firms drive low-frequency movements in macro growth and inflation rates that are negatively related, as in the data. With recursive preferences, these endogenous long-run growth and inflation dynamics are crucial for explaining a number of stylized facts in bond markets. Notably, when calibrated to a wide range of macroeconomic data, the model quantitatively explains the means and volatilities of nominal bond yields. The model also generates a sizeable equity premium and high investment volatility.

Keywords: Term structure of interest rates, asset pricing, recursive preferences, monetary policy, endogenous growth, inflation, productivity.

JEL Classification: E43, E44, G12, G18

Suggested Citation

Kung, Howard, Equilibrium Growth, Inflation, and Bond Yields (June 1, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2013725 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2013725

Howard Kung (Contact Author)

London Business School ( email )

Sussex Place
Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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