Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Models in Real Time

51 Pages Posted: 1 Mar 2012

See all articles by Maximo Camacho

Maximo Camacho

Autonomous University of Barcelona - Department of Economics; Universidad de Murcia - Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos

Gabriel Pérez-Quirós

Banco de España

Pilar Poncela

Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2012

Abstract

We extend the Markov-switching dynamic factor model to account for some of the specificities of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments from macroeconomic indicators, such as ragged edges and mixed frequencies. We examine the theoretical benefits of this extension and corroborate the results through several MonteCarlo simulations. Finally, we assess its empirical reliability to compute real-time inferences of the US business cycle.

Keywords: Business Cycles, Output Growth, Time Series

JEL Classification: C22, E27, E32

Suggested Citation

Camacho, Maximo and Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel and Poncela, Pilar, Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Models in Real Time (February 2012). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8866, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2013857

Maximo Camacho (Contact Author)

Autonomous University of Barcelona - Department of Economics ( email )

Avda. Diagonal 690
Barcelona, 08034
Spain

Universidad de Murcia - Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos ( email )

Campus de Espinardo
30100 Murcia
Spain
+34 968 367 982 (Phone)

Gabriel Pérez-Quirós

Banco de España

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Pilar Poncela

Universidad Autónoma de Madrid ( email )

Campus Cantoblanco
C/Kelsen, 1
Madrid, Madrid 28049
Spain

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