Chinese Joker in the World Pack

Journal of Globalization Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 7-24, 2011

18 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2012

See all articles by Leonid Grinin

Leonid Grinin

National Research University Higher School of Economics; Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting; Volgograd Center for Social Research

Date Written: December 2, 2011

Abstract

In the present article forecasts of China's upcoming development are given. It is shown why China, even with all its possible future success, will be unable to take the USA's place in the World System. The merits and shortcomings of the characteristics of the modern Chinese economic development model are revealed. The conclusion is made that the Chinese economy, with all its achievements, remains generally extensive and, based on the consumption of excessive numbers of various resources and funds and with respect to the attendant in-vestment gain, will become more and more ineffective. The author believes that it will be impossible to reconstruct the Chinese development model and GDP growth rates will slow down soon.

Keywords: Chinese model, East-Asian model, resource expenditure, growth limits, inflation, economic superpower, World-System leader

Suggested Citation

Grinin, Leonid, Chinese Joker in the World Pack (December 2, 2011). Journal of Globalization Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 7-24, 2011, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2014546

Leonid Grinin (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting ( email )

Rozhdestvenka 12
Moscow, 107031
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.sociostudies.org/ecbsf/

Volgograd Center for Social Research ( email )

Russia, 400079, Volgograd, Kirova street, 143
Volgograd, 400079
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l/

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