4 Pages Posted: 6 Mar 2012
Date Written: March 5, 2012
The commentary recommends a plot of the probability of a positive outcome as a tool for improving the interpretation of regression models in a forecasting context.
Keywords: forecasting, prediction intervals
JEL Classification: C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Ord, Keith, The Illusion of Predictability: A Call to Action (March 5, 2012). International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2016195
By J. Armstrong