The Illusion of Predictability: A Call to Action

4 Pages Posted: 6 Mar 2012  

John Keith Ord

Georgetown University, Robert Emmett McDonough School of Business

Date Written: March 5, 2012

Abstract

The commentary recommends a plot of the probability of a positive outcome as a tool for improving the interpretation of regression models in a forecasting context.

Keywords: forecasting, prediction intervals

JEL Classification: C53

Suggested Citation

Ord, Keith, The Illusion of Predictability: A Call to Action (March 5, 2012). International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2016195

John Keith Ord (Contact Author)

Georgetown University, Robert Emmett McDonough School of Business ( email )

Washington, DC 20057
United States

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