Are Technology Improvement Rates of Knowledge Industries Following Moore’s Law?: An Empirical Study of Microprocessor, Mobile Cellular, and Genome Sequencing Technologies

25 Pages Posted: 7 Mar 2012 Last revised: 25 Oct 2018

See all articles by Yu Sang Chang

Yu Sang Chang

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics

Jinsoo Lee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Yun Seok JUNG

Seoul Metropolitan Government

Date Written: October 1, 2012

Abstract

Many of the critical technologies in knowledge economy are undergoing an exponential rate of rapid improvement. The best known roadmap to guide exponential trend of improvement has been provided by Moore’s law.

This paper will update the validity of Moore’s law by applying it to microprocessor technology. Using Moore’s law as the benchmark, then, we will examine how well the historical trends of performance improvement in speed for mobile cellular, genome sequencing, and microprocessor technologies have followed Moore’s law. We will also test whether the improvement rate have begun to slow down in recent years.

Our finding indicates that Moore’s law remains valid over the last 40 years. However, improvement rate of speed measure varies for each technology.

Another finding is that more recent improvement rate during the last 10 years again vary between different technologies. For example, a significant acceleration in the improvement rate for genome sequencing technology has occurred, while a marked slowdown has taken place to microprocessor’s clock speed.

All of these variations, however, do not alter the fact that exponential trend indicated by Moore’s law remains valid to guide overall improvement of speed expected of these technologies.

Keywords: Knowledge Industry, Exponential Trends of Improvement, Moore’s Law, Microprocessor, Mobile Cellular, Genome Sequencing

JEL Classification: O30, O31, O32

Suggested Citation

Chang, Yu Sang and Lee, Jinsoo and JUNG, Yun Seok, Are Technology Improvement Rates of Knowledge Industries Following Moore’s Law?: An Empirical Study of Microprocessor, Mobile Cellular, and Genome Sequencing Technologies (October 1, 2012). International Journal of Technology Management(2018), Vol. 78, No.3, pp. 182-207, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2017413 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2017413

Yu Sang Chang

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics ( email )

Korea

Jinsoo Lee (Contact Author)

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
822-3299-1060 (Phone)
822-968-5072 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.kdischool.ac.kr

Yun Seok JUNG

Seoul Metropolitan Government ( email )

Seoul, 04515
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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