Testing Theories with Learnable and Predictive Representations
Posted: 7 Mar 2012
Date Written: April 15, 2010
We study the problem of testing an expert whose theory has a learnable and predictive parametric representation, as do standard processes used in statistics. We design a test in which the expert is required to submit a date T by which he will have learned enough to deliver a sharp, testable prediction about future frequencies. We show that this test passes an expert who knows the data-generating process and cannot be manipulated by a uninformed one. Such a test is not possible if the theory is unrestricted.
Keywords: learning, expert testing
JEL Classification: C70, D83
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation