Four Long-Term Scenarios for the Dutch Government and the Health Care Sector

32 Pages Posted: 8 Mar 2012

See all articles by Frits Bos

Frits Bos

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis

Rudy Douven

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Esther Mot

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis

Date Written: March 31, 2005

Abstract

This study presents four long term scenarios for government and health care services in the Netherlands. In 2001, the expenditure on government and health care services (including pharmaceuticals) was about 24% of Dutch GDP. According to all scenarios this will increase to between 29% and 33% of Dutch GDP in 2040. Partly due to relatively low productivity growth, the share in national employment will increase from 22% to 28-31% in 2040. Health care expenditures will increase from 10.3% of GDP in 2001 to between 16.8% and 18.7% of GDP in 2040. In all scenarios ageing and advances in medical technology are major driving factors of the growth in health care expenditures. Health care expenditures in the two market scenarios are about 1% of GDP higher than in the two public scenario’s. Volume growth of health care is 2.4% per year, twice as high as in the public scenario with lowest growth. Expenditure on government services (public administration, defence and subsidised education) will increase in the public scenarios from 13.6% of GDP in 2001 to 15% or 16% in 2040. However, in the two more market-oriented scenarios the government sector will decrease in size to 11% of GDP in 2040. Due to higher growth rates of GDP per capita, the growth of government services per capita in the market-oriented scenarios is only marginally smaller than in the more public scenarios.

Keywords: Long-run scenarios, public administration, defence, education, health care, productivity, ageing

JEL Classification: H5, I5

Suggested Citation

Bos, Frits and Douven, Rudy and Mot, Esther, Four Long-Term Scenarios for the Dutch Government and the Health Care Sector (March 31, 2005). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2017738 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2017738

Frits Bos (Contact Author)

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis ( email )

P.O. Box 80510
2508 GM The Hague, 2585 JR
Netherlands

Rudy Douven

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis ( email )

P.O. Box 80510
The Hague, 2508 GM
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.cpb.nl/nl/org/homepages/rcmhd/

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis ( email )

P.O. Box 80510
The Hague, 2508 GM
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.cpb.nl/nl/org/homepages/rcmhd/

Esther Mot

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis ( email )

P.O. Box 80510
2508 GM The Hague, 2585 JR
Netherlands

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