A Petroleum Peak?

Abstract

While it is agreed that humans are overwhelmingly dependent on hydrocarbon fuels, there is significant debate about how long these fuels, particularly oil, will be available. One school of thought, largely populated by geologists and geophysicists, is that the future of oil as a fuel is short -- that peak global conventional oil production will soon be or already has been reached. Those who follow this idea foresee the imminent depletion of alternative oil sources and oil that does not require major additional processing, and that no initiative implemented today will have a major impact on the future of this resource. Economists tend to subscribe to the position on the other end of the spectrum, which states that the crude oil supply is an essentially inexhaustible resource when taking into account advancing technology and the intersection of supply and demand. Illustrated by Huber & Mills' "The Bottomless Well", this view cites increases in energy efficiency and the importance of "energetic order" to yield information, safety, health and longer life that accompany advancements in knowledge. The argument may be made moot, however, in light of global warming and other threats of using oil as a fuel source which may disqualify this resource even when it remains in abundance.